Predicted bracket
Who lifted the trophy
Most likely to lift it
SpainModel projection — not results. Win chances from Monte Carlo · bookmaker odds + FIFA rank over 20,000 simulated tournaments.
Our sides' run
How far the model fancies your teams. Tap a side to trace its path in the bracket below.
Projected path to the final
Where each seat's qualifier comes from, and the teams most likely to fill it. Pick a nation to trace its path to the final.
Upset
Group E winner
GermanyClinched3rd from Groups A·B·C·D·F
ParaguayClinchedFinal
Group I winner
FranceClinched3rd from Groups C·D·F·G·H
SwedenClinchedFinal
FranceClinchedFinal
Group A runner-up
South AfricaClinchedGroup B runner-up
CanadaClinchedUpset
Group F winner
NetherlandsClinchedGroup C runner-up
MoroccoClinchedFinal
MoroccoClinchedFinal
Group K runner-up
PortugalClinchedGroup L runner-up
CroatiaClinchedFinal
Group H winner
SpainClinchedGroup J runner-up
AustriaClinchedFinal
SpainClinchedFinal
Group D winner
USAClinched3rd from Groups B·E·F·I·J
Bosnia & HerzegovinaClinchedFinal
Group G winner
BelgiumClinched3rd from Groups A·E·H·I·J
SenegalClinchedFinal
BelgiumClinchedFinal
Group C winner
BrazilClinchedGroup F runner-up
JapanClinchedFinal
Group E runner-up
Ivory CoastClinchedGroup I runner-up
NorwayClinchedUpset
NorwayClinchedUpset
Group A winner
MexicoClinched3rd from Groups C·E·F·H·I
EcuadorClinchedFinal
Group L winner
EnglandClinched3rd from Groups E·H·I·J·K
Congo DRClinchedFinal
EnglandClinchedFinal
Group J winner
ArgentinaClinchedGroup H runner-up
Cape Verde IslandsClinchedFinal
Group D runner-up
AustraliaClinchedGroup G runner-up
EgyptClinchedFinal
ArgentinaClinchedFinal
Group B winner
SwitzerlandClinched3rd from Groups E·F·G·I·J
AlgeriaClinchedFinal
Group K winner
ColombiaClinched3rd from Groups D·E·I·J·L
GhanaClinchedUpset
SwitzerlandClinchedSwipe → to follow the field into the Round of 16.
How the run finished
The cup is won — the champion, and where the other runs ended.
Spain World champions
The runs that ended
Out — Argentina, Spain took it 1–0 in the Final.
Out — France, England took it 6–4 in the Final.
A model's best guess, not a prediction of fact. Football, gloriously, does what it likes.
